Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded a rebound in retail sales performance in July 2026. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for July 2026, which reached 224.9, representing a 1.1% year-on-year (yoy) growth. This growth marks a reversal from the previous month’s performance, which contracted by 3.0% (yoy). 

BI stated that several categories supported retail sales growth in July 2026, particularly the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group, as well as the Other Goods Group. The Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group recorded a sales index of 318.0 with a growth of 2.4% (yoy), while the Other Goods Group recorded an index of 90.6, growing by 5.3% (yoy). 

In addition to these two categories, sales in the Spare Parts and Accessories Group also maintained positive growth at 5.1% (yoy), with the sales index reaching 148.9. Despite annual growth, month-on-month (mtm) retail sales performance experienced a contraction in July 2026. BI recorded that retail sales in July 2026 fell by 0.1% (mtm), contrasting with the 0.7% (mtm) growth recorded in June 2026. 

However, several categories still posted monthly growth. The Cultural and Recreational Goods Group grew by 9.6% (mtm), followed by the Other Goods Group at 8.4% (mtm), and the Other Household Equipment Group at 1.6% (mtm). BI explained that the monthly sales decline in July was influenced by the normalization of demand following National Religious Holidays (HBKN) and school holidays. 

August Sales Projected to Grow 0.5% 

BI projects that retail sales performance will continue to grow on an annual basis in August 2026. The August IPR is estimated at 224.6, or a 0.5% (yoy) growth. 

This growth is expected to be driven primarily by the Spare Parts and Accessories Group as well as the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group. 

The Spare Parts and Accessories Group is projected to record an index of 150.0 with a growth of 10.1% (yoy). Meanwhile, the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group is expected to reach an index of 317.6, growing by 0.7% (yoy). On the other hand, several categories are projected to remain in contraction despite showing performance improvements. The Information and Communication Equipment Group is expected to contract by 1.7% (yoy), while the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group is projected to contract by 1.2% (yoy). On a monthly basis, BI expects retail sales in August to remain relatively stable compared to July. 

The Information and Communication Equipment Group is projected to grow by 2.5% (mtm), Motor Vehicle Fuels by 2.3% (mtm), and Spare Parts and Accessories by 0.8% (mtm). BI noted that these increases align with sustained demand during the commemoration of the Independence Day of the Republic of Indonesia. 

Sales Expectations for October and January Decline 

Meanwhile, respondents to the Retail Sales Survey (SPE) project a decline in retail sales performance in October 2026 and January 2027. This is reflected in the Sales Expectations Index (IEP) for October 2026, which fell to 143.9 from 148.3 in the previous period. 

The IEP for January 2027 also dropped to 158.0 compared to the December 2026 index of 171.6. BI noted that respondents attribute this decline primarily to the normalization of demand following the Christmas holidays. 

Regarding prices, respondents expect inflationary pressure to ease in October 2026 and January 2027. This is indicated by the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for October 2026 at 146.5, down from 155.2 in the previous period. 

Meanwhile, the IEH for January 2027 stood at 166.0, lower than the 168.1 recorded in the previous period. 

This article is published in partnership with Katadata 

Original article here