Source: Katadata

Link to original article HERE 

BA.4 and BA.5 infection predicted to peak at a lower rate compared to Delta and Omicron
 

COVID-19 infection in Indonesia is rising following the detection of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariant of the coronavirus. Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin predicts that the peak infection rate of the Omicron subvariant would not be as high as previous outbreaks. 

“We believe that there will be an increase of up to a maximum of 25,000 per day,” Budi said during a press conference in Bogor Presidential Palace, West Java, on Thursday, June 16, 2022, as quoted by Antara. 

Budi said the prediction was based on infection rates in other countries. In South Africa, the peak infection rate of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariant was a third of the highest infection rate during the Delta and Omicron outbreak. 

In comparison, the peak infection rate of Omicron in Indonesia reached 64,718 cases, while the peak infection rate of the Delta variant reached 54,417 cases. 

Budi said this peak would occur one month after the detection of the first case. Therefore, the highest infection rate of the subvariants is expected to happen in the third week or fourth week of July 2022. “After which it will drop down again,” he added. 

The former Director of Bank Mandiri said the death rate of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants was much lower – about 1 in every 12 – of the Omicron variant. Budi said the increase in COVID-19 cases were already predicted by the Government. 

The main cause of the increase in infection rate was the increase in public activity during Eid Al-Fitr Islamic Holiday of 2022. 

Budi asked the public to immediately get their third or booster vaccination jabs. Furthermore, the prevailing health protocols, such as wearing masks during indoor activity, must continue to be observed.