Indonesia’s March trade surplus soared to a 13-month high of US$4.47 billion, fueled by robust export and a decline in imports, as per the latest data from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS) released on April 22, 2024. 

The export figures for March showed a significant increase of 16.40%, to $22.43 billion from $19.27 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile imports decreased by 2.60% to a total of $17.96 billion. This trend of surpluses has been consistent since 2020. 

BPS Acting Chief Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti attributed the surplus to heightened manufacturing activities among Indonesia’s key trading partners of United States, India, and China. These nations have demonstrated strong manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index figures. 

During a press briefing on Monday, Amalia revealed that the three countries accounted for 41% of Indonesia’s total export market in March, as reported by The Jakarta Post. 

China remains the primary recipient of Indonesian goods and services, receiving $4.75 billion worth of non-oil and gas exports commodities in March.  

This was followed by the United States and India with $2.19 billion and $1.78 billion, respectively. Additionally, exports to the ASEAN bloc totaled $3.78 billion, while the European Union imported $1.4 billion worth of goods and services. 

The surge in March was also bolstered by a 17.12% rise in non-oil and gas exports and a 5.62% increase in oil and gas exports. The top ten non-oil and gas export commodities all saw gains, with the largest increase observed in precious metals and jewelry or gems, surging by 206.58 % to $925.8 million. 

On a cumulative basis, both export and import values showed a decline compared to 2023. Exports decreased by 4.19%, while imports dropped by 12.76% year-on-year. 

From January to March 2024, the total export value stood at $62.20 billion, marking a 7.25% decline compared to the same period in the previous year. Non-oil and gas exports also fell by 7.53% to $58.30 billion. 

Sector-wise, non-oil and gas exports from the processing industry dipped by 4.92% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. Mining and other product exports fell by 17.31%. Conversely, agricultural, forestry, and fishery product exports increased by 8.05%. 

With a shrinking cumulative trade surplus, Indonesia still faces challenges amid ongoing external issues, as noted by Irman Faiz, an economist from private lender Bank Danamon in a recent analysis.  

Irman also suggested that export prospects might see a modest uptick due to potential geopolitical shifts possibly uplifting coal prices, though diminishing global demand could temper these gains.