Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded economic growth of 5.39% in the fourth quarter of 2025, broadly in line with the projection of Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and above the forecasts of several economists. Despite this performance, full-year economic growth in 2025 reached only 5.11%, below the 5.2% target set in the State Budget (APBN).

Head of Statistics Indonesia Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti said Indonesia’s economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), reached IDR 6,147.2 trillion at current prices in the fourth quarter of 2025, while GDP at constant prices stood at IDR 3,474.5 trillion. For the full year of 2025, GDP at constant prices totaled IDR 13,580.5 trillion, while GDP at current prices amounted to IDR 23,821 trillion .

“Indonesia’s economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew 5.39% compared with the same period last year. Cumulatively, Indonesia’s economy grew 5.11% throughout 2025,” Amalia said during a press conference on February 5, 2026.

Amalia explained that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth in 2026 at 3.3%, an improvement compared with the previous year. Economic conditions in emerging market countries are also expected to strengthen.

According to BPS data, China’s economy grew at a relatively stable pace of around 5% throughout last year, while Malaysia’s economic growth slowed from 5.1% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025. Meanwhile, the economies of Singapore and Vietnam recorded stronger growth compared with the previous year.

“With this picture, it can be seen that the economies of our partner countries continue to grow despite global challenges,” Amalia said.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa had earlier projected economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 5.4% year on year and full-year growth at 5.1%. Purbaya also stated that the data presented by BPS are independent and free from government intervention.

The realized economic growth also remains within Bank Indonesia’s projected range of 4.7% to 5.5%. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo previously said economic growth is expected to strengthen this year to a range of 4.9% to 5.7%, with a midpoint of 5.3%.

Several economists also projected higher economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter, although their estimates were less optimistic than those of the finance minister.

BCA economist David Sumual projected economic growth in the final quarter of 2025 at 5.26%, while full-year growth was estimated at 5.07% year on year.

A similar projection was delivered by Permata Bank’s Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research, Faisal Rachman, who forecast Indonesia’s economy to grow 5.07% in 2025.

“We estimate Indonesia’s GDP growth will increase from 5.04% to 5.25% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025,” Faisal said, as quoted by Antara. He added that the stronger performance in the fourth quarter was driven by improving domestic demand, particularly household consumption, government spending, and gross fixed capital formation, in line with the government’s growth-oriented agenda.

Meanwhile, in its latest projection released in January 2026, the IMF estimated Indonesia’s economic growth in 2025 at 5%, with growth expected to rise to 5.1% in 2026.

This article is published in partnership with Katadata 

Original article here