Indonesia’s trade surplus dropped to USD 160 million in April 2025, marking the narrowest monthly surplus since April 2020, according to data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on Monday. The figure fell significantly short of a Reuters poll forecast of USD 3.04 billion and was down from a surplus of USD 4.33 billion recorded in March. 

This marks the 60th consecutive month Indonesia has posted a trade surplus, but the April figure highlights a steep decline largely driven by a surge in imports. Imports rose 21.84 percent year-on-year to USD 20.59 billion, driven primarily by capital goods and gold. In comparison, exports increased 5.76 percent year-on-year to USD 20.74 billion. 

BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Pudji Ismartini confirmed that the surplus was supported by a USD 1.51 billion non-oil and gas trade surplus, which included exports of mineral fuels, animal and vegetable fats and oils, as well as iron and steel. However, the oil and gas sector posted a USD 1.35 billion deficit due to rising imports of crude and refined petroleum products. 

The United States, India, and the Philippines were Indonesia’s top trade surplus partners during the January–April 2025 period, contributing USD 5.44 billion, USD 3.98 billion, and USD 2.92 billion, respectively. In contrast, the largest trade deficits were recorded with China (USD 6.28 billion), Singapore (USD 2.41 billion), and Australia (USD 1.75 billion). 

The drop in surplus comes amid trade uncertainty linked to United States tariffs. The U.S. imposed a 10 percent blanket tariff on imports in early April, followed by a country-specific 32 percent levy on Indonesian goods, which was later suspended. Despite the suspension, the policy contributed to a decline in Indonesian exports to the U.S., which fell from USD 2.6 billion in March to USD 2.08 billion in April. Imports from the U.S. rose 19.28 percent month-on-month to USD 770 million, reducing Indonesia’s bilateral surplus with the U.S. to USD 1.31 billion, down from USD 1.98 billion, as reported by The Jakarta Post. 

Economists cited the U.S. tariff uncertainty as a contributing factor. Hosianna Evalita Situmorang of Bank Danamon said the sharp import rebound reflected “pre-emptive restocking amid rising trade risks.” Josua Pardede of Bank Permata attributed the surge partly to gold imports, which grew 253.6 percent year-on-year during the January–April period, indicating a domestic shift toward safe haven assets. 

Barra Kukuh Mamia, an economist at Bank Central Asia, also noted an influx of imports from China and Singapore. “All these indicate temporary disruptions related to Trump tariffs,” he told Reuters. 

On the macroeconomic front, Indonesia’s annual inflation in May eased to 1.60 percent, down from 1.95 percent in April, against a forecast of 1.94 percent. Core inflation also fell slightly to 2.4 percent, below the predicted 2.5 percent. The easing inflation, supported by a nearly 15 percent increase in rice output, keeps price growth near the lower bound of Bank Indonesia’s 1.5–3.5 percent target range. The central bank has cut interest rates three times since September 2024 in response.