The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) expects trade between Indonesia and the United States to reach USD 80 billion, or around IDR 1.32 quadrillion, following reciprocal tariff negotiations. Kadin Chairman Anindya Novyan Bakrie shared the projection after a visit to the US, where he met with several business leaders. 

“Our estimate at Kadin is that current trade—exports and imports combined—stands at about USD 39 to 40 billion. If we play our cards right, this could double to USD 80 billion in the next two to three years, and even grow to USD 120 billion within four years,” Anindya said in a press release on Monday, May 12. 

He added that the projection is based on Indonesia’s current trade surplus with the US, which sits at around USD 18 billion. That surplus, he explained, is expected to be balanced as part of the ongoing tariff talks. The US has opened negotiations with the aim of equalizing export and import values between the two countries. 

Post-negotiations, the trade balance is projected to shift, with total trade potentially rising to USD 58 billion. “The remaining USD 20 billion would come from increased two-way trade. We’re likely to export more, especially since the US is cutting imports from countries like China,” he said. 

Anindya also pointed to increased export potential in Indonesia’s textile and footwear sectors. He estimated that with gradual growth, Indonesia could add USD 10 billion in exports, pushing the total trade value to around USD 60 to 70 billion. 

On the other side, the US is expected to expand its exports to Indonesia in agricultural commodities such as soybeans, wheat, dairy, and meat. Based on these developments, Kadin believes the USD 80 billion trade value target is within reach. 

He also mentioned that this figure could rise further, potentially reaching USD 120 billion—close to Indonesia’s trade value with China, currently around USD 130 billion. “To be clear, Kadin is not part of the negotiations. But the potential is there, and both sides have the desire to trade more,” Anindya said. 

He emphasized that strong support from both the private sector and the government is crucial to realizing this potential. He noted that aligning regulations, improving trade facilities, and streamlining logistics would be key to achieving the ambitious trade targets. Anindya also underlined that beyond numbers, efforts to boost trade should focus on strengthening the quality of bilateral relations in a more balanced and mutually beneficial way. 

Indonesia and the US are currently in talks covering reciprocal tariffs and trade balance issues. 

This article is published in partnership with Katadata 
Original article here