Indonesia’s trade surplus forecast to widen to US$630 million 

Indonesia’s trade surplus is projected to widen in August 2026, while September inflation is expected to edge higher, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 

The median forecast from 17 economists puts Indonesia’s August trade surplus at around US$630 million, up from approximately US$130 million in July 2026. 

As cited by Reuters, Indonesia’s exports are expected to grow 4.30% year-on-year in August, slowing from 6.05% growth in July. Meanwhile, import growth is projected to accelerate to 31.14% year-on-year from 27.02% in the previous month. 

The performance comes after Indonesia’s trade balance returned to a surplus of around US$130 million in July. The surplus reversed trade deficits recorded in the previous two months. 

The May deficit also ended a monthly trade surplus streak that had lasted for around six years. 

Meanwhile, headline inflation in September is expected to rise to 3.30% year-on-year from 3.19% in August. 

Despite the increase, the figure remains within Bank Indonesia’s inflation target range of 1.5%-3.5%. 

A separate Reuters poll of 20 economists also forecasts September core inflation at 2.91%, relatively stable compared with 2.92% in August. 

The August trade data and September inflation figures are scheduled for release on 1 October 2026. 

 
Source: IDFinancials 

 
 
Indonesia’s Prabowo names new foreign, industry ministers in major Cabinet reshuffle 

In his biggest Cabinet reshuffle to date, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on Thursday (October 1) has appointed new foreign and industry ministers, as well as new coordinating ministers over several portfolios.  

Arrmanatha Nasir was named as his new foreign minister, moving up from his role as deputy foreign minister. The career diplomat replaces Sugiono, who is now Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture. 

Golkar party politician Muhammad Sarmuji was named as the Minister of Industry, replacing Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita. 

 
Presidential Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman will now serve as the Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs while Bahlil Lahadalia has been appointed the Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, a new position in the Cabinet.   

Source: CNA 

Indonesia posts wider-than-expected $3.55 billion trade surplus in August 

Indonesia booked a surprisingly large trade ‌surplus of $3.55 billion in August, official data showed on Thursday, well above market expectations, but some economists doubted the position was sustainable. 

The August surplus was the widest since September 2025, according to LSEG data, and significantly higher than the median forecast for a surplus of around $630 million in a Reuters poll. 

The large surplus could ease concerns about Indonesia's worsening current account position, after the country posted its biggest deficit since 2018 ⁠in the April-June quarter. 

But Irman Faiz, an economist at Bank Danamon, said that while the surplus provided a near-term foreign exchange buffer, the improvement was "precarious rather than structural". 

Faiz attributed it to softer-than-expected imports that he said were temporary. 

"We therefore remain cautious on the external outlook, particularly as the terms-of-trade backdrop has become less favorable," he said. 

Danamon continues to expect the central bank to further tighten monetary policy to navigate external pressures, he said. 

IMPORT GROWTH WAS BELOW EXPECTATIONS 

Indonesia, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia, is the world's top exporter of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel and a major supplier of tin, copper, aluminium and coffee. 

The country has benefited from rising prices of some ‌of its ⁠top commodity exports this year, with some gains driven by rising global crude prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, as a net oil importer, its import bills have also soared. 

Exports rose 6.72% on a yearly basis in August to reach $26.61 billion, according to Statistics Indonesia, compared with a 4.3% increase expected in the Reuters poll. 

The better-than-expected rise was driven ⁠by higher shipments of non-ferrous base metal products, nickel, aluminium, copper and base chemical products. 

Imports rose 19.09% on a yearly basis to $23.06 billion, below the 31.14% surge forecast in the poll. 

Resilient import growth is expected going forward, with improvement in the purchasing ⁠managers' index in September, while exports could face headwinds from soft demand, said Bank Permata economist Faisal Rachman. 

He forecast Indonesia's current account deficit to widen to 2.49% of GDP in 2026 and stay around that level in ⁠2027, significantly wider than the 0.09% in 2025, with the central bank seen keeping its tighter monetary policy stance. 

Bank Indonesia raised policy rates by 100 basis points between May and June to defend the falling rupiah currency . 

Source: Reuters