Indonesia posted a trade surplus of USD 5.49 billion in August 2025, the highest monthly figure in nearly three years, according to the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The surplus was derived from exports of USD 24.96 billion and imports of USD 19.47 billion. With this, the country has booked 64 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020. 

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a USD 4 billion surplus in August. The actual result also exceeded July’s surplus of USD 4.17 billion. Exports grew 5.78% year-on-year, the weakest pace in four months but slightly above forecasts. U.S.-bound shipments reached USD 2.72 billion, down 12.4% from July, but still up 3 percent from the same month in 2024. Higher exports of palm oil, nickel, gold, and jewelry supported overall performance. 

“The August surplus was driven by a USD 7.15 billion surplus in non-oil and gas commodities, with palm oil, mineral fuels, as well as iron and steel being the top contributors,” said BPS Deputy for Production Statistics M. Habibullah in a virtual press briefing on Tuesday, October 1, as quoted by Jakarta Globe. Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector recorded a 1.66 billion deficit, weighed down by crude oil and fuel imports. 

Overall, imports contracted 6.56%, steeper than the 1.6% decline expected, led by drops in gold and jewelry, iron and steel, organic chemicals, and cereals. 

Palm Oil a Key Export 

Indonesia recorded significant growth in palm oil exports in 2025, driven by higher global prices. BPS reported exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and processed products worth USD 16.66 billion between January and August, up from USD 12.32 billion in the same period of 2024. 

“So our palm oil exports grew by 35.23% year-on-year [yoy] in the first eight months of 2025,” Habibullah said. 

Average export prices rose 19.91% to USD 1,041.32 per ton, compared with USD 868.42 a year earlier. Export volumes increased 13.56% to 16.20 million tons, from 14.26 million tons in the same period last year. India remained a key buyer, with shipments of animal or vegetable oils and fats valued at USD 2.73 billion, making up 21.71% of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports to the country. 

Habibullah also noted that Indonesia exported around 2.6 million tons of CPO and derivatives to the United States in August, the same month Washington imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. Palm oil exports to the European Union totaled 1.27 billion dollars from January to August, including USD 192.64 million in August alone. Indonesia and the EU are expected to conclude a free trade agreement by early 2027. 

Inflation Remains Stable 

Indonesia’s annual inflation accelerated to 2.65 percent in September from 2.31% in August, remaining within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5% to 3.5% target range. On a monthly basis, inflation reached 0.21%, with the Consumer Price Index rising from 108.51 in August to 108.74 in September. Year-to-date inflation stood at 1.82%. 

The rupiah strengthened 30 points, or 0.18%, to close at IDR 16,635 per USD on Wednesday. Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate also appreciated to IDR 16,680 from IDR 16,692 previously.  

Analysts noted that the currency’s movement was supported by controlled inflation and Bank Indonesia’s rate cut to 4.75%, but external sentiment and global uncertainties remain dominant factors.