Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence Surge Ahead of Year-End Holidays 

Retail sales and consumer confidence rose in November as Indonesians prepared for the Christmas and New Year holiday season. 

Preliminary data released by Bank Indonesia (BI) on Wednesday showed that the Retail Sales Index (RSI) was projected to reach 222.1 points in November, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year (yoy) increase from 209.7 points in November 2024. 

In a statement accompanying the data release, BI spokesperson Ramdan Denny Prakoso said the growth was largely driven by “increasing demand ahead of preparations” for Christmas and the New Year holidays. 

The annual increase was mainly supported by higher sales of household appliances, cultural and recreational goods, as well as spare parts and accessories. Sales of food, beverages, and tobacco also contributed to the solid November performance. 

Strong growth had already been recorded in October, when the RSI stood at 219.7 points, marking a 3.7% yoy increase. A similar positive trend was also observed on a month-to-month (mtm) basis over the past two months. 

In contrast, sales of information and communication technology (ICT) products remained in negative territory in November, plunging 33% yoy. ICT products have continued to weigh on overall retail growth, posting double-digit contractions consistently since March. 

Meanwhile, sales of spare parts and accessories grew 15.4% yoy in October, maintaining strong momentum since July. Sales of cultural and recreational goods also posted notable growth of 12.8% yoy, up from 6.7% in the previous month. 

Survey respondents expected inflationary pressures to rise in January, driven by increasing demand ahead of Ramadan in February. Inflationary pressure is then expected to ease in April, following Idul Fitri, although respondents anticipate sales to soften in both January and April as demand normalizes. 

A similar positive trend was reflected in BI’s Consumer Survey for November, where the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 124 points, up from 121.2 points in October. This improvement reflected stronger expectations about economic conditions after the index had fallen to a multi-year low in August. 

Despite the monthly improvement, November’s CCI reading remained slightly below the level recorded in the same month last year. 

The Current Economic Conditions Sub-Index increased to 111.5 points in October, up from 109.1 points a month earlier. The indicator had come close to the 100-point threshold, which separates optimism from pessimism, in September. 

The job availability indicator stayed in optimistic territory for the second consecutive month after falling below the 100-point mark from May through September. Indicators for current income and durable goods purchases also showed improvement. 

The Consumer Expectations Sub-Index, which measures expectations over the next six months and forms part of the overall CCI, remained well above the optimism threshold at 136.6 points. All three expectation indicators—income, job availability, and business expectations—remained comfortably above 130 points, signaling strong short-term optimism. 

Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia economist Fithra Faisal Hastiadi wrote in an analysis released on Wednesday that the CCI reading reflected “continued resilience in household sentiment despite an uneven domestic recovery.” 

“The improvement was broad-based across all six sub-indices, signaling growing optimism not only about current conditions but also about the economic trajectory in the coming months,” Fithra said. 

He added that stronger expectations regarding job availability suggested that “labor market sentiment is recovering more solidly,” which could translate into stronger household consumption early next year. 

“The rebound in consumer confidence provides an important counterweight to lingering weakness in certain segments of domestic demand and offers constructive signals for private consumption,” he said. 

Meanwhile, UPN Veteran Jakarta economist Achmad Nur Hidayat cautioned that November’s CCI strength might reflect optimism “on paper,” noting that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.99% in the first half of the year and 5.04% in the third quarter. 

“While these figures are not bad, they do not indicate a spectacular surge in household spending,” Achmad wrote. 

“The CCI measures perception and expectations, not daily household cash flow. The question is whether this optimism is genuine and sustainable, or merely the result of sample bias and well-crafted policy narratives,” he added. 

Source: Jakarta Post 
 

Indonesia Targets Completion of U.S. Tariff Talks by Year-End 

Indonesia expects to conclude tariff negotiations with the United States by the end of the year, the country’s chief negotiator said on Friday. A delegation is scheduled to travel to Washington next week to resume discussions. 

The talks appeared at risk earlier this week after the United States accused Indonesia of backtracking on prior commitments. Jakarta, however, said the situation reflected normal negotiation dynamics and that the issue centered on “harmonizing the language” of the agreement. 

The timeline for concluding the talks followed a video call on Thursday between Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. 

“We agree to complete what has been agreed upon in the leaders’ declaration on July 22nd,” Airlangga said at an economic forum, adding that a non-disclosure agreement prevented him from sharing further details. 

When asked whether the United States had requested a clause requiring Indonesia to inform Washington of future trade deals with other countries, Airlangga responded, “It is an agreement that is not with Indonesia.” 

It remained unclear whether Indonesia would be open to such a provision. 

A similar clause in the U.S. agreement with Malaysia allows Washington to terminate the deal and reinstate tariffs announced by President Donald Trump in April, should future trade agreements threaten key U.S. interests and negotiations fail to resolve concerns. 

Cambodia has also agreed to a comparable provision in its October agreement with the United States, although the wording differs. 

A successful tariff deal is considered critical for Indonesia to sustain export growth, particularly in textiles, footwear, and palm oil. 

The United States has imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian products, down from 32%, after Jakarta agreed to eliminate tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. goods and remove all non-tariff barriers affecting U.S. firms. 

Source: Reuters 

Danantara, Jordan Investment Fund Explore Strategic Investment Opportunities 

Danantara, through its subsidiary Danantara Investment Management (DIM), has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Jordan Investment Fund (JIF) to initiate structured collaboration on strategic investment opportunities across Jordan. 

The MoU was signed in Amman on Thursday by Pandu Sjahrir, Chief Investment Officer of Danantara, and the CEO of JIF. The ceremony was witnessed by Danantara CEO Rosan Roeslani and Jordanian Minister of Investment Tareq Abu Ghazaleh. 

“Danantara welcomes the opportunity to work with JIF in identifying strategic projects that deliver long-term value and contribute to shared economic advancement,” Roeslani said in an official statement received in Jakarta. 

He added that Jordan’s track record in maintaining a stable investment climate, along with its clearly defined national development priorities, makes it a strong partner for cooperation. 

“We see this collaboration as the beginning of a broader, multi-phase engagement through which both countries can work together to unlock new areas of growth,” Roeslani said. 

He expressed confidence that the partnership would evolve into a long-term relationship, supporting Jordan’s development goals while creating new value opportunities for Indonesia. 

Minister Tareq Abu Ghazaleh welcomed the partnership, noting that it aligns with directives from King Abdullah II of Jordan, particularly following the King’s recent visit to Indonesia, during which deeper engagement with Danantara was emphasized. 

Ghazaleh highlighted Jordan’s strategic advantages, including its skilled workforce, natural resources, geographic position, and supportive regulatory environment, which together provide a strong foundation for major investment projects and sustainable partnerships. 

The collaboration will explore co-investment opportunities across priority sectors such as infrastructure, urban development, transportation, energy transition, digital initiatives, and technology-driven projects. 

Beyond project exploration, the MoU also paves the way for deeper institutional cooperation, with both sovereign wealth funds set to exchange expertise in investment management, governance, and project development, while strengthening operational coordination for future joint ventures. 

Source: Antara News