The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s economic growth at 4.95% in the third quarter of 2024, below the Indonesian government’s own projection, and the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2023. 

 

In Q4 2023, Indonesia’s growth reached 5.04%. Economic growth had previously reached 5.11% in Q1 and 5.05% in Q2 of 2024. 

 

“The quarterly economic growth trend aligns with seasonal patterns observed in previous years, where growth in Q3 tends to be lower than in Q2,” Acting Head of BPS, Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, said at a press conference on Tuesday, November 5.  

 

From January to September 2024, Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.03%. In terms of business sectors, the main contributors to this growth were the manufacturing industry, construction, trade, and information and communication sectors. 

 

“This growth is in line with production activities to meet domestic demand and exports,” Amalia stated. 

 

From an expenditure perspective, the main contributors to economic growth were household consumption and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB). This is reflected in sustained household consumption growth and the addition of capital goods for production and strategic investment activities. 

 

Outside Government Projections

 

The BPS economic growth data was outside the government’s projections. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto had previously projected that Q3 2023 growth would be close to 5%. 

 

“(Q3 2024 economic growth) will be around the same level as before. I’m not giving a specific figure. We’ll wait until tomorrow,” Airlangga said when met at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs office in Jakarta on Monday, November 4. 

 

On the other hand, economists had anticipated a possible slowdown. Permata Bank’s Chief Economist Josua Pardede projected an economic growth of 5.02% in Q3 2024, noting the tendency of slower economic growth in the third quarter. 

 

Despite the slowdown, growth in this period was still driven by household consumption. “Household consumption is expected to grow by 5.03% year-on-year,” Josua told Katadata. 

Original article here

This article is published in partnership with Katadata