The World Bank predicts that Indonesia will be the only country in East Asia and the Pacific to experience positive economic growth in both 2024 and 2025. In fact, the country's growth is expected to reach or surpass pre-pandemic levels. 

 

"Among the larger economies, only Indonesia is projected to grow in 2024 and 2025 at or above its pre-pandemic level, while growth in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam is expected to fall short," said Aaditya Mattoo, Chief Economist for the East Asia and Pacific region at the World Bank, during a virtual press conference in Jakarta on Tuesday (October 8). 

 

This projection was detailed in the World Bank’s October 2024 edition of its *East Asia and Pacific Economic Update*, released the same day. 

 

In the report, the World Bank forecasts Indonesia's economic growth at 5% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025, matching the country's average growth rate of 5% between 2015 and 2019. The October 2024 report revises Indonesia's growth projections upward from the April 2024 estimate, which stood at 4.9% for 2024 and 5% for 2025. 

 

Indonesia’s future economy is expected to benefit from rising consumer spending, increased investment, and higher government expenditure. Meanwhile, overall growth for the East Asia and Pacific region is projected at 4.8% in 2024, slowing to 4.4% in 2025. 

 

China’s growth, in particular, is expected to decline from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, weighed down by continued weakness in its property market, low consumer and investor confidence, and structural challenges such as an aging population and global tensions. 

 

Regional Economic Outlook 

 

Excluding China, economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is forecasted to rise from 4.7% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025, supported by stronger domestic consumption, a recovery in goods exports, and a rebound in tourism. 

 

Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, the Philippines by 6% in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, Thailand by 2.4% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, and Vietnam by 6.1% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. 

 

Cambodia is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025, while Laos is expected to record growth of 4.1% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Myanmar’s growth is forecasted at 1% in both 2024 and 2025. 

 

The Pacific Island countries are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, driven by a recovery in the tourism sector. However, investment growth remains weak in most of the region. 

 

Original article here

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